What’s new from SSR Mining?

Firstly, the Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources ( source: Bakan Bayraktar’dan İliç sonrası ‚madenciliğe devam‘ mesajı) said the following in a speech last week:

„Minister Bayraktar addressed the İliç Çöpler gold mine disaster in two parts ……… at the end of his speech, he emphasized the miners‘ “determination to continue production”.

The title of the article means translated: „Continuation of mining – message from Minister Bayraktar to İliç“.

Ilic is the place where the Cöpler mine is located and Ilic belongs to the Erzincan province. Another current link also deals with the continued operation of the mine:

İliç’in yeni belediye başkanının eşi Anagold firmasına iş yapıyor

Summarized: “ …… the ministry’s approval process for these companies will be restarted …… Anagold can resume its activities if it receives a temporary operating certificate – a corresponding announcement is suspected the next weeks. The general expectation is that the Cöpler mine will resume operations, as Anagold is so dominant in the region’s economy that it determines economic activities and economic policy. The AKP is very strong in both Erzincan and İliç itself.“ Is there anything behind this other than an allusion to the close connections between Anagold and the Calik Holding, which is extremely close to the governing AKP? We have already discussed all of these connections in detail in our previous articles.

This means to me nothing else that preparations are already underway or are planned – to continue operating the Turkish Cöpler mine after the clean-up work. Remarkably, SSR Mining has built up enormous strength against the mining index XAU for around 4 weeks – see graphic here! Blue is SSR Mining, green is the mining index XAU! We had already made a small „bet“ in this regard a few weeks ago, namely that the ratio of SSRM to XAU should slowly decrease. A decrease in this ratio means that SSRM is performing better than the XAU index. Back then it was exactly 30 – now we are at 25.5 (136 : 5,34 dollars closing price USA Friday evening).

On the other hand, SSR Mining will announce the current quarterly figures for Q1/2024 on May 8th. Source: SSR Mining to Announce Q1 Financial Results May 8, 2024

In this context they will probably not be able to avoid saying a few words and figures regarding the accident in Turkey. In addition to a cost estimate, we expect initial cautious statements about what will happen to the Cöpler facility and the entire mining area around it. This May 8th could be the decisive game changer that breathes new life into the SSRM share. Why? Almost no matter what happens ..… can it really be as bad as what is currently priced into the company’s stock price – incalculable costs and an endless mine closure?

Of course, we don’t want to make an investment recommendation in any way, BUT: On this day or the day after, there could be a price explosion in response to such statements. What is the share price doing the last days – as an initial reaction to this news? It is rising – see the following link, where you can sort the components of the mining index XAU according to winners and losers at +/-% on the right: Philadelphia Gold/Silver (XAU) components

Never forget one thing: The Cöpler mine is located in the east of Türkiye. This is one of the least populated regions on this planet. Zoom further away from this picture and you will see how lonely the place is. If you don’t do mining there – where else? In recent years there have been specific attempts to create jobs and generate tax revenue through mining. How could it be otherwise than that after the clean-up work, after paying any fines and under increased controls, things will continue as usual?